#258: just simple.

every now and then, i browse through jcrew.com and check out their uber popular wedding collection. i often end up pouting because the dresses i really really like cost like $2000. and i'm like HUH, it's JCREW... but there are times when i find a dress that makes me happy both in design and in cost. this is one of them.


$350 at jcrew.com.

the only change i would make is turning that bow around to the back. oh, and i'd definitely add a french net veil to the ensemble, people. french net veil!

J Crew Does it Again

Check it out, J Crew has launched their new spring line. And it is fantastic!

I just want a few things to start with. Good thing I have a birthday coming up. And because I know he is now an avid reader - dad see above for my list.

For the Preppy Baby...

Love these prints from Made by Girl. A very cool, new way to display a child's name in his/her room. I think this would be a fantastic shower gift?

Make sure you check out her valentine cards, they're super cute.

Four Goals of Tax Policy

I thought it might be useful to put the debate over fiscal stimulus in a broader perspective.

When designing a tax system and evaluating tax proposals, policy analysts have at least four goals in mind:

1. Efficiency: The tax system should distort incentives as little as possible (and, in the case of externalities and Pigovian taxes, correct incentives when necessary).
2. Intergenerational equity: The tax system should raise enough revenue so current generations do not unduly burden future generations.
3. Egalitarianism: The tax system should try to achieve a more equal distribution of after-tax incomes.
4. Stabilization: The tax system should help maintain the economy at full employment.

The current debate over fiscal stimulus involves trading off these goals. The stimulus package being discussed is mainly aimed at achieving goal 4, but it does so at the cost of sacrificing goals 1 and 2 to some degree. Efficiency is sacrificed because the phase out raises effective marginal tax rates and because the higher future taxes that result from the extra government debt will likely be distortionary. Of course, the phase out is there in order to achieve goal 3: This is the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality.

Differences of opinion arise when policy analysts weight these goals differently. Advocates of fiscal stimulus put a large weight on goal 4. Critics of fiscal stimulus come in two varieties. One type of critic discounts goal 4 entirely because they are skeptical of Keynesian theories that underlie this goal. A second type of critic admits that goal 4 is legitimate in principle but believes that in the current environment macroeconomic stabilization is best left to monetary policy so fiscal policy can focus on goals 1 and 2. I am in this latter category.

purposedesign: spice labs

{medium everyday spice kit}

because who doesn't need more spice in their life? ingenious spice kits and gifts. more at purposedesign.etsy.com

as i am running to the airport *right now* (internet addiction, anyone??) i promise to edit this post when i return from my *hopefully* delicious vacation. the spice of life!

have a great weekend, all!

The cat is out of the bag

�The problem is not that economists are unreasonable people, it�s that they�re evil people.�

Source.

STOCKHOLM - fashion week by berns aw 2008, 01/30/08

mamameo: fortune cookie soaps

{fortunate fortune cookie soaps}

this *fabulous* etsy idea from exit, pursued by bear, in a great post.

more at mamameo.etsy.com

#257: wink wink!

i noticed that a bunch of bloggers celebrated their birthdays this month. myself included. does that mean anything? :)

Preppy Navy & Yellow Bridesmaid Inspiration

I was lucky enough to have dinner last night with a bunch of sorority sisters who are now living in Richmond. We had lots of fun remembering some of the trouble we got into in college and revisiting some highlights of our lives as delta gammas.

One of the attendees last night was looking for bridesmaids dresses for her wedding this summer. It�s going to be a casual affair and she is using navy and yellow are accent colors. She was having trouble finding bridesmaids options, so I put together a little lookbook of fun summer inspired dresses to fit her perfect preppy wedding!

1. J. Crew 2. eDressme 3. Jenny Yoo 4. Shoshanna via edressme

5. Jennifer Reale via edress me 6. Shoshanna via edressme

Fiscal Stimulus Update

Alex Brill, formerly an economist at the Ways and Means Committee, emails me:

Have you noticed how the stimulus bill is shifting? Only in Washington can there be two definitions of what $150 billion means. The House and the White House wanted $150 billion stimulus in 2008 but the Finance Committee appears to define the $150 billion price tag as the 10-year cost, not the one year cost. Subtle but important difference. As a result they have increased the 2008-2009 cost to $196 billion and the ten year cost is now the "magic" $150 billion. The policy changes? More rebate checks and tax relief for firms with NOLs in 2006 and 2007 (presumably home builders and financial services companies being notable winners).

Here and here are the numbers.

Update: Jason Furman emails me a comment:

I think your correspondent gets the "only in Washington" definition backwards. The important fact to understand is that both the House and Senate stimulus plans contain bonus depreciation. That allows companies to take larger depreciation allowances in the first year in exchange for lower depreciation allowances in future years. The one-year cost of the House version is $44 billion but much of that money is recouped so that the net present value is $13.6 billion. Only in Washington (and in this case the House bill that your correspondent seems to implicitly support) would this be described as $44 billion. Any business would use a concept much closer to the NPV.

You get closer to the NPV by using 11 year nominal totals, which taking the entire bills are $117 billion for the House and $156 billion for the Senate. This does not say which is substantively better, but it is the better way to pose the question.

Also, like your correspondent I am skeptical about allowing firms to essentially get tax credits against net operating losses, it does nothing to increase the rate of return to new investment and I do not expect the improved cash flow to have much stimulative effect. But I would have thought you would have agreed with former Bush administration Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy Pamela Olson who argued, "In a perfect world, economists (of all stripes) wouldn't just permit carrybacks and carryforwards, they'd refund losses to taxpayers... So, I would say that it's a good idea, but it will cost revenue, which will have to be balanced against the benefit."

Finally, most policymakers do not realize that the "true-up" that allows taxpayers to claim the best of 2007 and 2008 adds extra complications, has no stimulative effect, and creates the marginal rate problems you identified in your earlier post. Maybe you should see if you could convince folks to drop this provision so that the rebate will be entirely a lump sum transfer, rather than mostly a lump sum transfer.

Also, The Onion gives us the latest stimulus proposal.

STOCKHOLM - fashion week by berns aw 2008, 01/29/08

pillowhead: sachet favors

{customized + hand-embroidered coffee sachets (set of 2)}

cracked out on too many late-night seating chart wrangles?
struggling to stay awake writing one more thank-you? (just... one... more...)

this find courtesy of angel at lifeseventful, who thinks these would make brilliant favors. what a great idea! these are not skivvy-sachets -- for those, pillowhead makes lavender -- they're desktop, good morning, wake-up sachets, made from repurposed canvas and felt, and (!!) hand-embroidered with a lovely sans-serif initial/number/symbol and color of your choosing. they'd also be a kick for a bridesmaid brunch. good morning minions
best girlfriends!

thanks so much for the suggestion!
more embroidered treats at pillowhead.etsy.com

Preppy Homegrown Chic

This storyboard is for Kate (who did not ask for me to do this, so surprise!). Kate is a transplant from Richmond, who now lives in NYC and is planning a wedding for the fall. It will be held on the shore, where she is from and is going to be a complete homegrown affair.


I love the dress and the use of the green button mums. The mason jar lanterns lead the way from the wedding site to the reception tent. Instead of a cake, cupcakes will lend a homemade chicness to the super casual and fun affair!

How is Mike Huckabee like Martin Luther King?

Dartmouth's Bruce Sacerdote and Owen Zidar analyze the words used in candidates' speeches. They conclude:

John McCain and Mitt Romney are the most like Ronald Reagan whereas (within the set of primary candidates) the words of Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama are the closest to those of Martin Luther King. Hillary Clinton is by far the candidate closest in oratory to Bill Clinton.

STOCKHOLM - fashion week by berns aw 2008, 01/28/08

jennysherbie: soy candles

geranium soy wax candle

ok, how's this for an eco-clever idea? non-toxic soy wax candles, scented with all natural oils, in vintage glassware. once the candle is finished, a little soap and water and the glass can be used for toasting your bad green self.

you could get unscented ones for the dinner tables in an assortment of glasses, *or* jennysherbie also lists a whole armada of candles in reusable jars to be given as favors, complete with a custom-designed decal featuring your wedding particulars.



more info at jennysherbie.etsy.com

Jason Furman vs Steven Landsburg

A debate about fiscal stimulus.

P(recession now)=0.355

Tim Kane of the Joint Economic Committee staff has a new paper on Employment Numbers as Recession Indicators. The abstract:

This paper investigates the value of employment data as real-time recession indicators. Among popular monthly labor measures, the unemployment rate is the most useful as an indicator of recession, whereas two top measures of employment growth�payroll jobs and civilian employment�have little value. Two other series, the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio, also provide little or no value in anticipating a recession. The best pre-recession employment indicator is actually weekly claims for unemployment insurance (UI). The paper reviews a new technique for predicting recessions, and develops an employment recession probability index. The index indicates a 35.5 percent chance that the U.S. economy is in recession, sharply up from 10 percent last month.

Sweet Preppy Inspiration

Love, love, love the basket weave design on this cake from InStyle Weddings.

Didn't make it to Ikea this weekend, but I did make the trek to Williamsburg and the closet Trader Joe's. For all you gals who have one around the corner - I am so very jealous. Hopefully, I won't be envious for long because the word around the market is that Richmond is going to be getting one in the next year or so. Top secret info here, so don't say I told you.

There was a lot of inspiration around the market. We bought the wine and champagne for our wedding at TJ's and they do have such an amazing and inexpensive selection. They also have a great frozen party food section for all your gals planning a shower in the near future. Don't you think their mini cookies would look fantastic wrapped up all cute for a yummy favor to be enjoyed before the ceremony with a glass of milk?