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Summers vs Obama

The analysis of Professor Larry Summers:

Another cause of long-term unemployment is unionization. High union wages that exceed the competitive market rate are likely to cause job losses in the unionized sector of the economy. Also, those who lose high-wage union jobs are often reluctant to accept alternative low-wage employment. Between 1970 and 1985, for example, a state with a 20 percent unionization rate, approximately the average for the fifty states and the District of Columbia, experienced an unemployment rate that was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of a hypothetical state that had no unions.

The policies of President Barack Obama:

On the economy, President Barack Obama signaled once again the ground is shifting -- this time with regard to unions.

With his signature on three executive orders, President Barack Obama expanded workers rights and reversed Bush administration orders that were seen as anti-union.

Then, the president said something that hasn't been heard in the Oval Office for a long time. "I do not view the labor movement as part of the problem, to me it's part of the solution," said President Obama.

BERLIN - fashion week aw 09, day 2, 01/30/09

Smoot, Hawley, & Pelosi

The Washington Post reports:

The stimulus bill passed by the House last night contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package.

A Senate version, yet to be acted upon, goes further, requiring, with few exceptions, that all stimulus-funded projects use only American-made equipment and goods....

U.S. industrial giants including Caterpillar, General Electric and the domestic aerospace industry are emerging as strong opponents. The measures, they argue, could violate trade deals the United States has signed in recent years, including an agreement on expanding access to government procurements reached through the World Trade Organization.

But most damaging, critics say, would be the "protectionist message" attached to imposing such barriers on foreign companies.Nations including China and many in Europe are preparing to spend billions of dollars of taxpayer money on stimulus projects. American companies are angling for a piece of those pies, and retaliatory measures against U.S. companies, executives argue, could significantly complicate those efforts. This week, a European Commission spokesman threatened countermeasures if the Buy American provisions are approved.

I hope President Obama and his economists strongly oppose these first shots in a new trade war of protectionism. So far, the article says, "the administration has not addressed the issue publicly."

DOWNLOAD RIBUAN GAME DISINI...GRATIS DAN MAINLAH SEPUASNYA

#
3 Foot Ninja
3 Foot Ninja II
A
Acid Factory
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Adventure Elf
Age Of Speed
Air Barons
Alex in Danger
Alien Abduction
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Alien Clones
Alien Disorder
Alien Hive
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Ask Guru Joe
B
Baby Blimp
Backfire
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Bank Robber
Base Jumping
Baseball
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Beat The Wall
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Best Friends
Big Catch
Big Jump Challenge
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Blair The Motivator
Blobs
Blobs 2
Bloomin' Gardens
Blox Forever
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BMX Freestyle
Board
Bomba
Boom Volleyball
BP Gas Mania
BP Rally
Bubble Trouble
Bug On A Wire
Bullseye
Bunch
Bush Aerobics
Bush Shoot-Out
C
Cab Driver
Cable Capers 2
Candy and Clyde
Cannon Blast
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Canyon Glider
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Caravan Racers
Carnival Jackpot
Castle Conquest
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Caveman
Cell Out
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Classroom Pilot
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Cyber Mice Party
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Fruit Smash
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Galactic Goobers
Galactic Warrior
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Gateway
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Golf Ace
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Golfish
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Gravity
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Hangaroo
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Ice Breaker
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In The Doghouse
J
Jet Ski
Jigsaw - Car
Jigsaw - Ocean
Jingo
K
Karaoke
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Kickboxing
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L
Lamb Chop Drop
Last Christmas 2
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Magic Balls
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Mountain Bike
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Mr Men Pinball
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Narnia Prince Caspian
National Treasure
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Numbskull
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Off The Rails
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Paintball
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Power Soccer
President Knockout
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Puker
Putty Face
Puzzle Pirates
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Quick Fire Pool
R
Rabbid Droppings
Radical Aces
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S
Samsung Football
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Sandman
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Save the Sheriff
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Sheepish
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Sushi Go Round
Sveerz
T
T. or Treat Smash
Table Tennis
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Tabletop Cricket
Tanked Up
Tarnation
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Tennis Doubles
Tennis Grand Slam
Tennis Titans
The Ashes
The Old West
The Old West 2
The Scruffs
Thin Ice
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Traps, Mines, Sheep
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Trech
Trech 2
Trial Bike
Trial Bike Bundle
Trial Bike PRO
Trials 2
Trials Construction
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UFO Joe
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V
Vectoroids
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Verti Golf 2
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Wacky Ballz
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Western
Whack a Ground Hog
Wheels of Salvation
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Wordo
World Domination 2
Wrap Attack
X
XRaye
Y
Yo�gos Rollers
Youda Camper
Z
Zed
Zen Puzzle Garden
Zubo Zurfing

more handmade wedding dresses under $500

{each photo links to its shop}

[see also my first post on wedding dresses under $500.]

#511: tonight.

i'm hightailing it to pier 1.


via pier 1.

NOW $1.48 - $1.78
Orig. $15 - $18

why? because i thought i had it all figured out. but obviously i don't.

please bear with me as i think out loud.

i don't need 'perfect'. i just need it to 'make sense'. and easy enough. but personal enough. and non floral for the most part. but not weird.

eh? i guess thinking out loud doesn't always help. i hope i have some clarity (and goodies to show you) after the weekend.

until then, peace loves.

xoxo,
tto

Temporary, Targeted, and Timely - Not!

David Brooks guesses what Larry Summers is, or should be, thinking about the stimulus bill.

Cutler to DC

Harvard economist David Cutler is joining the Obama administration. There is little doubt that the new economic team is made up of some of the best and the brightest our profession has to offer.

PARIS - on the street, m�nilmontant & le marais, 01/29/09

The Malkiel Portfolio

I took introductory macroeconomics from Burt Malkiel at Princeton (in 1977, just after he returned from a stint at the Council of Economic Advisers) and learned my early lessons in finance from reading his book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street. So I was interested in reading about his latest portfolio recommendations:

• 20% Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) (Tracks a broad index of U.S. companies)
• 20% Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) (Tracks a broad index of stocks from developed and emerging foreign markets.)
• 20% Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) (Tracks a broad index of high-quality U.S. bonds)
• 10% Vanguard Capital Opportunity (VHCOX) (An actively managed fund that likes big growth companies down on their luck)
• 10% Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) (Tracks an index of stocks developing nations)
• 10% Templeton Dragon (TDF) (Invests in stocks from China and nearby nations)
• 10% Matthew's India (MINDX) (Invests in stocks from India)

Compared to what I expected, Burt has more in equities in general and more in emerging markets in particular. (Emerging markets include the last three holdings on his list, plus a bit of the second, making up about a third of the total portfolio). To my surprise, he lists no specific allocation to real estate securities such as REITS or to inflation-protected bonds.

#510: the placecards.

i was going to just cut out rectangles for my placecards. but all of a sudden, that seems boring. especially after i saw these.


maya made via daisy chain.

i have 6 cereal boxes collected. and i'm sure we have an old dictionary lying around somewhere.

#509: empty vase.

via seaglass vintage.

so. if i were to use something like this (maybe a bit bigger, or maybe several different height'd vases bunched together) as a centerpiece...as a guest, would you think it was weird if i didn't put any flowers in it?

(also, is my question grammatically correct? <-- update: fixed thanks to MissTre.)

PARIS - colette blogs party, le r�gine, 01/28/09

Judging Presidents

A reader asks a good question:

What are some useful and objective measures which we can use to judge the performance of President Obama and his new team? How would Greg Mankiw judge Obama four years from now?

Consider a related question: How would you judge the competence of a doctor if you could observe him treating only a single patient?



What you would not do is judge him by the outcome. Even the best physicians have patients die. And even witchdoctors can have patients recover. Randomness is a fact of life (and death). In the case of a medical doctor, the answer seems clear: Instead of looking at the outcome, you would judge him by the decisions he makes and treatments he prescribes. That is, you would examine whether he followed best practices for the circumstances he faced.



Similarly, randomness is a fact of economic life, and it would be a mistake to judge a president by the economic outcome during his administration. It is better to look at the decisions the president made, and to acknowledge that the outcome is a function of those decisions and many other factors not under his control. As an economist, I have views about what best practices are for economic policy, and I judge presidents by how closely they adhere to those principles.



Unfortunately, that evaluation process is not quite as simple and objective as the reader might have hoped for. But I don't think there is a better alternative.



Now some people may be tempted to read the above commentary and call it self-serving. After all, the economy looks pretty bad right now, so maybe I am trying to excuse President Bush and, indirectly, myself as one of his economic advisers.



Not so. If you want to judge presidents and their economic advisers by outcomes, that would be all to my benefit. I arrived in Washington to head the CEA in February 2003 and left in February 2005. (Harvard has a two-year rule for faculty leave). During that time, the economy grew at a healthy annualized rate of 3.6 percent, and the unemployment rate fell half a percentage point. As judged by outcomes, I look pretty good! But I will be the first to admit that this argument is deeply silly.

Stein and Liebman to DC

The Crimson reports that the Obama administration has recruited Harvard economists Jeremy Stein and Jeff Liebman, both excellent choices.

englishdept: more pdx dream gear

{ antique ivory silk taffeta ruffle bolero }

ohhh. yes please. until etsy, i never knew i was such a secret girly-girl. (not-so-secret now! wedding blog, natch.)

englishdept is the etsy shop of elizabeth dye, owner/designer of real life brick-and-mortar store the english dept. in portland oregon. the bolero above is handmade and can be ordered in custom sizes, and her other few pieces on etsy are sublime.

was going to end there, but seriously: the one-of-a-kind ivory beaded cashmere bridal shrug below, fashioned from a vintage sweater, is an amazing winter piece.



go now, and compliment this woman!
more at englishdept.etsy.com

#508: the groomsmen.

remember my open letter?

well, i will have to pay close attention to this thread.

#507: would you scrap your plans.

Are you an engaged couple who truly wants a one-of-a-kind wedding of a lifetime, but you're finding it next to impossible in the face of an economic crisis? Then this is your opportunity to have the wedding of your dreams!

The Style Network is celebrating the 100th episode of "Whose Wedding is it Anyway?" We are searching for ONE LUCKY COUPLE who is ready to scrap their plans and go on a wild ride with one of our featured "Whose Wedding" planners, as we GIVE them the most unforgettable wedding adventure!

Please send your contact info, love story and photos to: WhoseWedding100@trueentertainment.net

All participants must be 21 years of age or older and have a valid US passport. You must also be available for shooting and travel in early March 2009.

The deadline to apply is February 16, 2009.

i'm not sure i'd be willing to just exnay everything i've been working on for the past 2 years. but then again, and given the major economic turbulence around us lately, saving $10,000 sounds mighty tempting.

PARIS - on the street, belleville & le marais, 01/27/09

Krugman on Equilibrium Macro

Paul Krugman disses a large class of macroeconomists:

Economists who have spent their entire careers on equilibrium business cycle theory are now discovering, in effect, that they invested their savings with Bernie Madoff.

It is funny. I have a similar pedigree as Paul. Both of us have PhDs from MIT, and we learned a lot of our macro there. Both of us see the world through the lens of the Keynesian framework (by which I mean the IS-LM model, etc.) But we have very different perspectives on the equilibrium business cycle theorists.

The difference may reflect our research paths. Most of Paul's research has been in international economics, and throughout his career, he could easily ignore equilibrium business cycle theory. By contrast, I have done a lot of work on "new Keynesian economics," which tries to fix the flaws in the Keynesian model that the equilibrium business cycle theorists pointed out. Perhaps that work has given me more appreciation for their contribution, as well as for the defects in the Keynesian worldview. When I teach graduate-level macro, no one shows up on my reading list more often than Robert Lucas, the father of equilibrium macro.

In my view, the intellectual framework created by Lucas and Ed Prescott needs to be taken seriously by students of modern macro. I think they both richly deserved the Nobel Prize. And I hope they did not invest any of their winnings with Bernie Madoff.

chinese new year: happiness doubled sampler

{ xin niang "bride" necklace by dorisworks }

a bit late, as the chinese new year was monday -- here's to the year of the ox.






{each photo links to its shop}

#506: Ruth 1:16

Entreat me not to leave you, or to return from following after you, For where you go I will go, and where you stay I will stay. Your people will be my people, and your God will be my God. And where you die, I will die and there I will be buried. May the Lord do with me and more if anything but death parts you from me.

via miss cheese.

Amusing, Perhaps Pointless

The Bailout Game

from today's etsy finds: rings + seababejewelry

{ hand-forged white gold and rough diamond ring by seababejewelry }

friends, this may be a cheater post, but with all the valentine's promotion on etsy they sent out an 'etsy finds' email with fun ring ideas today.

my favorite new find: seababejewelry, who deserve their own post! kristin and david make gorgeous things on the north shore of oahu -- i love the organic look of rough diamonds and other wire-wrapped gemstones in place of something perfectly machine-faceted and prong-set. not to mention living in hawaii and making jewelry sounds like a pretty good gig.

check out some of their other work below, and see the storque for more etsy ring finds this week!





more at seababejewelry.etsy.com