McCain vs Obama: NAFTA

It is almost surreal that what should be hailed as an example of bipartisan success in trade policy has instead become a significant campaign issue. Here are two new stories.

First, news from team Obama:

Obama campaign mum on NAFTA contact with Canada

Despite repeated requests, Barack Obama's campaign is still neither verifying nor denying a CTV report that a senior member of the team made contact with the Canadian government -- via the Chicago consulate general -- regarding comments Obama made about NAFTA....

On Wednesday, CTV reported that a senior member of Obama's campaign called the Canadian government within the last month -- saying that when Senator Obama talks about opting out of the free trade deal, the Canadian government shouldn't worry. The operative said it was just campaign rhetoric not to be taken seriously.

The Obama campaign told CTV late Thursday night that no message was passed to the Canadian government that suggests that Obama does not mean what he says about opting out of NAFTA if it is not renegotiated.

However, the Obama camp did not respond to repeated questions from CTV on reports that a conversation on this matter was held between Obama's senior economic adviser -- Austan Goolsbee -- and the Canadian Consulate General in Chicago.

Earlier Thursday, the Obama campaign insisted that no conversations have taken place with any of its senior ranks and representatives of the Canadian government on the NAFTA issue. On Thursday night, CTV spoke with Goolsbee, but he refused to say whether he had such a conversation with the Canadian government office in Chicago. He also said he has been told to direct any questions to the campaign headquarters.

Meanwhile, there is less confusing news from the McCain camp:

McCain affirms support for NAFTA

Penny Anti

The AP reports:

Asked Friday whether he thought the penny should be eliminated, [Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson agreed that it would make sense.

Yes, it would.

PARIS - ready-to-wear aw 08/09 shows, 02/28/08

Two strikes and I'm out of here

A new paper by Radha Iyengar on three-strikes-and-you're-out sentencing in California shows that crminals respond to incentives, sometimes in unintended ways:

I estimate that Three Strikes reduced participation in criminal activity by 20 percent for second-strike eligible offenders and a 28 percent decline for third-strike eligible offenders. However, I find two unintended consequences of the law. First, because Three Strikes flattened the penalty gradient with respect to severity, criminals were more likely to commit more violent crimes. Among third-strike eligible offenders, the probability of committing violent crimes increased by 9 percentage points. Second, because California's law was more harsh than the laws of other nearby states, Three Strikes had a "beggar-thy-neighbor" effect increasing the migration of criminals with second and third-strike eligibility to commit crimes in neighboring states.

The Audacity of Fear

The Economist looks at the recent rise of populism.

#262: all i'm saying.

is that if i get engaged by april 14th (which i'm assuming is the deadline for entries) and decide to have a 2009 wedding, i'm for sure going to be submitting my story to the contest over at laura ryan photography.

check out her gallery and tell me to my face you aren't dying to fly her out and get your little fingers all over a disc (which is FREE if you WIN!!!) filled with images of your special day as captured through her lenseses.



side note: the bf has been dropping some major hints about the big P. hmmmmmm...

roselabiche: tr�s chic tees

{ orchid -- ruffled tee }

ok, this is only loosely bridal. i could make a case for a bachelorette night-out or over a simple white skirt at an uber-casual affair. but i have such an etsycrush on rose la biche's shop! and i'm *so* not a ruffle kind of girl.

french globetrotting san francisco-based designer lucy sounds like a trifecta of cool. i *heart* you, ruffly amelie tees.




more at roselabiche.etsy.com

Quick Quiz: Middle Class Taxes

Question: How does the tax burden the middle class faces today compare with the tax burden the middle class has faced historically?

Answer: Click here and scroll down to see the chart. (N.B.: This includes all federal taxes, not just income taxes.)

Don't believe it? Check out the data source yourself.

Miron on Drug Legalization

Here is an old talk, recently posted on YouTube, by my friend and Harvard colleague Jeff Miron. (Jeff teaches ec 1010a, the intermediate micro course most Harvard econ students take after ec 10.) The topic is still relevant, as evidenced by today's news that the number of Americans in prison has reached a record high.

Our neighbors are not happy

The FT reports:

Candidates rebuked for attacks on Nafta

Mexico and Canada on Wednesday voiced concern about calls by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, as the Democratic presidential hopefuls compete to adopt the most sceptical stance towards free trade ahead of next week�s Ohio primary election.

In a televised debate on Tuesday night, Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton both threatened to pull out of Nafta if elected president unless Canada and Mexico agreed to strengthen labour and environmental standards.

Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico�s ambassador to the US, told the Financial Times that the US, Canada and Mexico had all benefited from Nafta and warned against reopening
negotiations.

�Mexico does not support reopening Nafta,� he said. �It would be like throwing a monkey wrench into the engine of North American competitiveness.�

Mexican diplomats believe a renegotiation could resurrect the commercial disputes and barriers to trade that the agreement itself was designed to overcome.

Tufts prof Daniel Drezner comments:

Democrats cannot simultaneously talk about improving America's standing abroad while acting like a belligerent unilateralist when it comes to trade policy.

Update: Related news:

[Canadian] Federal Trade Minister David Emerson hinted that if the North American Trade Agreement were to be revisited, a provision giving United States priority access to Canadian oil would be on the table.

Emerson declined to shrug off the anti-NAFTA talk by two Democratic presidential candidates as political posturing in a U.S. election year.

Outside Parliament on Wednesday, Emerson said: "There's no doubt if NAFTA were to be reopened, we would want to have our list of priorities," and hinted that U.S. access to Canadian oil could be one of them.

Meltzer on Bernanke

Allan Meltzer, the eminent economist and monetary historian, thinks the Fed is repeating the mistakes of the 1970s.

PARIS - ready-to-wear aw 08/09 shows, 02/27/08

trixiedelicious: alternative china

{ seven deadly sins ornate set }

have i really not mentioned trixiedelicious? her shop was one of the first i 'hearted' when i joined the crack den etsy community... hey, everyone needs a vice. or seven.

her work truly speaks for itself -- perfect visual irony, not for the dainty or blushing. wicked gifts! more hand-painted kiwi insouciance at trixiedelicious.etsy.com

what's cookin'?

hello all! am cooking up a little something behind the scenes, more info to come. there just might be a lag in posting. or i might use the blog to procrastinate. like right now. {blink blink}

[can i just say: thank god blogs did not exist when i was in college. am dating myself, but seriously. i'd probably still be in my second semester.]

in the meantime, check out this great interview! offbeatbride and diybride have combined to form an awesome bridal voltron ... er, sorry. ariel offbeat interviews khris d.i.y. about the dangers of 'craftier-than-thou' syndrome' -- especially perilous for already-crafty folks who think: what the hey! i'm crafty! i could hand-quilt 175 leather and straw save-the-dates -- i can whip up four sets of bridesmaid jewelry the morning of the wedding -- no sweat. (one of those scenarios is true.)

if you're interested, discuss further at diybride.com

Who should I root for?

If Mike Moffatt fails to get back into shape, economics education will improve by $100. Details here.

PARIS - ready-to-wear aw 08/09 shows, 02/26/08

"reactionary, populist, xenophobic and just plain silly"

That's how economists Willem Buiter and Anne Sibert describe the Patriot Employer Act .

The Dreaded S Word

Robert Samuelson on Stagflation:

no politician acknowledges the self-evident implication: that recessions, though unwanted and hurtful to many, are not just inevitable; sometimes they're also necessary to prevent the larger and longer-lasting harm that would result from resurgent inflation. Interestingly, many academic and business economists who have more freedom to speak their minds suffer the same deficiency. They treat every potential recession as a policy failure when it is often simply part of the business cycle. They thus contribute to a political climate that, focused on avoiding or minimizing any recession, may perversely aggravate inflation and lead to much harsher recessions later....

Unfortunately, the Fed shows signs of overreacting to these pressures and repeating the great blunder of the 1970s. Underestimating inflation then, the Fed repeatedly shoved out too much money and credit in a vain effort to keep the economy near "full employment." Now, switch to the present. Again, the Fed has underestimated inflation.

Preppy Wedding Dos

Love, love, love these preppy dos for your wedding day (via brides.com). And yes, I do confess I have an obsession for headbands. They are the perfect preppy accessory.