Economic Disaster 101

Print a lot of money, control prices and wages, and then watch the laws of economics take over.

NEW YORK - loft party, bushwick + misshapes, don hill, 09/01/07

NEW YORK - yo yo yo!, washington heights + soho, 09/01/07

House Prices in the Taylor Rule?

Rick Mishkin seems to think that house prices should be added to the Taylor rule:

Central bankers should ease monetary policy quickly and aggressively in response to a big fall in house prices, Federal Reserve governor Frederic Mishkin said on Saturday.

Presenting a paper on the final day of the Fed�s Jackson Hole symposium, Mr Mishkin said policymakers should not wait until output falls, but should �react immediately to the house price decline when they see it.�

He said the optimal policy response was both quicker and more aggressive than that suggested by a standard policy rule, in which policymakers respond only to deviations in output and inflation.

He said simulations show that this approach �can be very successful at counteracting the real effects� of even a large house price slump, because of the long lags from changes in housing wealth to changes in consumer spending.

From the FT.

Update: Here is the Mishkin paper.

Traffic Citations as a Revenue Source

Via Judy Chevalier:

tickets were issued more often in places that were short on cash, and out-of-towners received tickets more often than drivers with local addresses.

NEW YORK - on the street, soho + ruff club, the annex, 08/31/07

The Laibson Plan to End Mortgage Insanity

My Harvard colleague David Laibson (via Justin Fox) has a proposal for dealing with unscrupulous mortgage lenders:

To prevent lending institutions from offering misleading deals that trap borrowers, we should require that all future mortgage loans be prepayable with no penalty. This is an easy, simple rule. The rule will have the effect of leading banks to stop offering many of the teaser rates that serve as loss leaders (pay too little interest for the first 18 months but then pay extra on the back end). These loss leaders are often confusing and tempting for borrowers. Banks won't want to offer loss leaders if borrowers can get out of the loan without paying a penalty after the subsidized payment period -- the teaser period -- ends.

My proposal would not discourage banks from offering sensible adjustable rate mortgages (those without a loss leader component). Borrowers should be allowed to take out a mortgage pegged to short-term rates. That's not a loss leader and such mortgages will still be offered if prepayment is made penalty-free. My proposal will only hit the mortgages with early loss leaders built into the payment stream.

I appreciate the logic here. When I refinanced my mortgage not long ago, one of my first questions was, Are there any prepayment penalties? I figured that as long as the answer was no, I was less likely to be hit with strange, hidden provisions down the road.