Pornography and rape are substitutes

Todd D. Kendall, an economist at Clemson University, reports that more pornography leads to less rape:

The arrival of the internet caused a large decline in both the pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs of accessing pornography. Using state-level panel data from 1998-2003, I find that the arrival of the internet was associated with a reduction in rape incidence. However, growth in internet usage had no apparent effect on other crimes. Moreover, when I disaggregate the rape data by offender age, I find that the effect of the internet on rape is concentrated among those for whom the internet-induced fall in the non-pecuniary price of pornography was the largest � men ages 15-19, who typically live with their parents.

Thanks to David Friedman for the pointer.

Speaker Pelosi Update

The betting at tradesports says the probability that the Republicans keep control of the House is now 34 percent. However, three political scientists have looked at the data and concluded:

Based on current generic ballot polls, we forecast an expected Democratic gain of 32 seats with Democratic control (a gain of 18 seats or more) a near certainty.

Thanks to Statistical Modeling for the pointer.

Iceland: probably the highest style density in the world

I'm just back in Paris. I have to say how amazing is Iceland. Imagine a 190'000 souls city 200 km far for Arctic Circle where everybody is creatively dressed . I've never seen such a high style density elsewhere. Reykjavik is definitely a hotspot for inspiration. Sublime landscapes and lovely people. For the first time I didn't meet any too-cool-for-school folks, 100% of the people were OK to be face hunted. Last Sunday, the national newspaper Frettabladid published this:

For those who are not fluent in Icelandic, there's a traduction on reykjavik.com.

REYKJAVIK - last shots on the street, 10/22/06

REYKJAVIK - iceland airwaves, 10/21/06

REYKJAVIK - kron kron 2nd anniversary birthday party, kron kron, 10/21/06

Henry George on Free Trade

Henry George, the 19th century economist and social reformer, is best known as an advocate for taxes on land (as discussed in Chapter 8 of my favorite economics textbook). But these quotations about trade (via Larry Kudlow) show that he was passionate about other topics as well:

I was educated a protectionist and continued to believe in protection until I came to think for myself and examine the question.
-Henry George

Free trade consists simply in letting people buy and sell as they want to buy and sell. Protective tariffs are as much applications of force as are blockading squadrons, and their objective is the same--to prevent trade. The difference between the two is that blockading squadrons are a means whereby nations seek to prevent their enemies from trading; protective tariffs are a means whereby nations attempt to prevent their own people from trading.
- Henry George, Protection or Free Trade 1886

Amen.