But until they represent much more than 13 percent of the electorate, classical liberals won't feel completely at home in either major party.In a new study from the Cato Institute, a libertarian think-tank, David Boaz and David Kirby argue that libertarians form perhaps the largest block of swing voters. Counting them is hard, since few Americans are familiar with the term �libertarian�. Mr Boaz and Mr Kirby count those who agree that �government is trying to do too many things that should be left to individuals and businesses�, that government, rather than promoting traditional values, �should not favour any particular set of values�, and that �the federal government has too much power�. Using data from Gallup polls, they found that, in 2005, 13% of the voting-age population shared all three views, up from 9% in 2002.
That is easily enough libertarians to tip an election. And their votes are up for grabs. In 2000 George Bush won 72% of the libertarian vote, to Al Gore's 20%, by repeating the mantra �My opponent trusts government. I trust you.� But in 2004, after Mr Bush increased the size of government and curtailed some civil liberties as part of the war on terror, his margin dropped to 59%-38%. The swing was as sharp in congressional races, too. Going back further, libertarians backed George Bush senior by 74%-26% in 1988. But when he sought re-election in 1992, they split evenly between him, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot. A group that can give the eccentric Mr Perot a third of its support must be really disgruntled.
Update: Here is the Boaz-Kirby study.
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